– If we have not taken account of falling oil prices, we have a bad policy, said Victor D. Norman.
He was minister for the Conservatives from 2001 to 2004 and is a professor at the Norwegian School.
Aftenposten wrote yesterday about “double bang” for government revenues when oil prices fall and interest rates that will provide a return on Petroleum Fund is a record low.
– There was this we created the fund, says Norman.
He reminds that the fund should “decouple” oil revenues from the use of the state budget.
– That oil revenues and income of the fund will be lower should not affect us at all, he said.
– At least not in the short term, it means that state budgets for the next three years should be prepared as normal. Should the Ministry of Finance concludes that fall in oil is permanent, it will have greater consequences, the professor says, and adds that roosters unsure how one can arrive at any such security.
Everything turns
– As finance minister, I experienced oil price of $ 10 and well over 100, says former Finance Minister of Labor Johnsen.
The current county of Hedmark warns against panic over oil price has fallen to below 50 barrel.
– Now we are well back at about the 2009 level, he said.
– The Pension Fund shall just contribute to fluctuating oil prices do not affect the state’s finances.
The former minister does not hesitate to call the fund “genius”.
– I traveled around the world and lectured about it. About to be a country which has large income from a commodity without being able to influence the price. Then it is very sensible to distinguish revenues that way.
He said that the greatest danger to the fund’s value is sharp drop on world stock exchanges, the price of oil. And he reminds us that the value of the fund has increased by 30 per cent last year.
Greater earnest in industry
Both Norman and Johnsen says that the price of oil is a major challenge for Norwegian industry, than for politicians who make budget.
Norman does not exclude that the government can get into a situation where it makes sense to “accelerate” by easing slightly on budget discipline.
– The problem with it is that it is labor in western Norway that gets the most problems, while it is on the central eastern Norway that you can get started with infrastructure problems first, he said.
Johnsen believes that manufacturing firms that supply the oil industry can benefit greatly from the weak exchange rate, even though the international market is struggling because of the oil price.
– They can compete against companies that have received opposite currency effects, says Johnsen.
Moreover, there is talk about some of the world’s leading technology environments, which he believes should be able to adapt.
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