– Europe is changing, and Greece is a symbol of the change that is underway. Gone are saving policy. The agreement – “memorandum” – with the EU and IMF are canceled, said Alexis Tsipras after his party had won close outright majority.
The celebrations from the crowd on Tears space, directly below university in central Athens, was enormous. The flags weighted in the wind in the cool January evening. Now would tears replaced with hope.
Politicians who will win elections are allowed to use big words. But once the election is over, it is expected that the rhetoric toned down to dampen fans’ expectations in preparation for everyday life to come. This is particularly a politician who will become prime minister.
It was the opportunity Tsipras had last night and he did not.
When he held his victory speech Sunday night, he repeated the Most of their election promises, not least its hardline stance against the claims that the EU has set as a condition for the huge crisis loans Greece has received since 2010.
Now it seriously, it was a prime minister with a clear mandate from His people who spoke. Therefore, his words yesterday a completely different emphasis than during the campaign.
Can Tsipras move mountains?
But if Tsipras realize their renewed promises to the Greek people, he must move mountains.
Tsipras demand debt negotiation to reduce Greeks enormous debt burden. And he wants the negotiations to be conditions fix: Agreement dictating what Greece must do in return that the loans should be discarded to the scrap heap.
“Troika” – experts from the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the IMF – which has overseen Greece and pushed forward unpopular cuts and reforms – he will not have anything to do. He will negotiate directly with European leaders.
This is strong meat from Europe’s most indebted countries, especially when the country’s own politicians for decades have turned the country to live on borrowed money.
But Equally important is that Tsipras challenge recipe that has also been used against other countries that have received emergency loans, especially Portugal and Ireland. They also have debt.
That is why the entire recipe to stabilize the euro as he now challenges.
Further down the road waiting Italy, with ten times as large debt like Greece.
The Germans do not understand economics
Tsipras main opponent named Angela Merkel. She is the architect rather than someone behind EU line.
On a show does not lack Tsipras allies, at least not at the intellectual level. From ECB chief Mario Draghi to Davos heard the same message: Europe is stuck in the mud. Economic reforms are necessary, but not triggered new growth when combined with savings policy in virtually every country in the EU.
It is not enough that it now be printed money. It is needed in addition increased government spending, not least for getting started again investments in Europe. And that requirement is aimed particularly at Germany and other countries that have the freedom that surpluses provides.
To set has really Merkel few allies in his analysis of Europe’s economic problems.
The Greeks do not understand German politics.
But after a button weeks in Athens, there is one thing I have not seen – a good analysis of Merkel’s motives. It is about politics more than about economics.
For Germany and other northern European countries have the dramatic impact of savings policy, in the form of a deep depression with 25 percent unemployment in Greece and Spain, never been a decisive objection .
For Germany in particular it concerns something more: Safeguarding the European project, which has been priority number one in German politics since the EU was founded. When is the most crucial of all to preserve support for the euro in Germany.
And the Germans are equally upset by the Greeks as Greeks of Germany.
Therefore Alexis Tsipras bad odds when he challenges Merkel.
Grexit: Greece may be forced out of the euro
Germany and the EU have certainly prepared well ahead of the Greek elections, including prepared a Plan B: Greece must, if necessary by the eurozone.
Still, the matter is not settled.
The British Guardian newspaper printed Sunday evening an article with comments from anonymous, high-ranking officials in EU Quarter in Brussels. One said:
“Grexit is impossible. Europe (ie the EU) is about irreversibility (deepening cooperation that can not be reversed). If you begin to doubt it, we are heading towards fragmentation and soon you have no currency union. “
He takes one caveat: if Greece, without debt deal, do not pay their creditors. “Default” reads in English, bankrupt states in Norwegian. Then it was over.
EU financial support to Greece ceases February 28 if it is not consensus.
Fasten your seatbelts.
Tsipras might as well begin to draft a new voice to the Greek people.
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