Finance
the Markets believe in Clinton, but fear the Trump.
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The last markedsforventningene before the election is inside – and once again, it suggests bad news for the world’s financial markets if republikaneren candidate Donald Trump will be America’s next president.
the Uncertainty related to what the businessman and TV personality Trump actually will do if he becomes America’s next president has made that global financial markets have fluctuated down on any sign that the controversial candidate’s chances of winning increases.
In today’s morgenrapport from DNB Markets will brokers with their most recent forecasts and expectations prior to the united STATES-the election is decided the night of Wednesday.
If Clinton wins the think DNB Markets' economists and analysts that the dollar and the oil price appreciates, while the Norwegian krone is expected to remain stable. Trump is expected, however, to be able to send both the price of oil, the dollar and the crown down.
exchange rate
– Should Trump win, will lower oil prices and a weaker risikosentiment be able to contribute to a weaker krone, type valutastrateg Magne Østnor of DNB Markets. Also the investment firm Nordea Markets believe that the weaker dollar on the background of the oljeprisutviklingen and risikosentimentet in the market.
Risikosentiment is a description of how the risk in the market is perceived to be.
Østnor of DNB writes, further, that the speculators in the market has positioned itself for a stronger krone exchange rate – which increases the potential for a decline.
– Should Clinton win, on the other hand, we do not believe there is room for especially kronestyrkelse. Higher oil prices will help, but here hangs the Opec as a clammy hand over prospects, writes Østnor and refers to the oljekartellet Opec, if internal strife have failed to push up oil prices from current levels.
oil prices
DNB Markets await, as also most of the projections suggest, that Clinton wins the election.
It will be positive for oil prices, according to the investment firm.
It is because she wants to tax the industry harder, but most importantly because the price of oil as a financial instrument reacts to less uncertainty. Trump is on their side, want lower taxes for the industry, and the Trump-the victory is considered to be negative for oil prices, said the report.
long-term
In the longer term waiting, DNB Markets the following consequences of presidentvalgets outcome.
the Clinton-says:
- the Us central bank, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in December
- economic growth in the united STATES will bring gradually up
- the Unemployment rate falls further.
- the Uncertainty in the financial markets is reduced
About a possible Trump-says the believe economists both in Nordea and DNB that the prospects are uncertain and depend on the proposed Trump would actually get to implement. Trump has, among other things, warned that he will go out of a number of free trade agreements, reduce the rate of tax and introduce a general protectionist trade policies.
This can be the possible consequences of a Trump-says, according to DNB Markets:
- tax cuts and increased fiscal stimulus will lift the growth, and thus mean higher interest rates and a stronger us dollar
- To scrutinize trade agreements and increase the handelsbarrierene will pull in the opposite direction, but also lift inflation.
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