OPEC will be the driver behind a global increase in væskeproduksjonen of 300,000 barrels per day. Oljekartellet estimates that member states will increase the production with 400.000 barrels per day in the period. It is stated by OPEC of its 2016 version of the World Oil Outlook report which was published on Tuesday and quoted by TDN Finans.
In 2021, it is expected that the total production will be about 99,4 million barrels per day, where OPEC’s contribution will be 40,7 million per day, of which 33,7 million barrels will be crude oil. This is up from 38,9 million barrels as OPEC is expected to produce in the year, of which 32,7 million barrels will be crude oil.
Increased market share
The global demand is expected to rise by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2017, from 94,2 million barrels in the year, so that the balance becomes on 95,3 million barrels per day.
In 2021, it is expected the demand to rise to 99,2 million barrels per day.
Oljekartellet expect that demand will continue to rise also in the longer term, and sees a global oil demand of 105,5 million barrels in 2030, as well as a demand for 109,4 million barrels in 2040.
Outside OPEC is expected that production will fall after a reached a peak of 61.4 million barrels per day in 2027.
“It means that Opec will have to meet most of the increase in demand in the long term”, states the report, according to TDN Finans.
the Cartel are waiting that they need to increase his production of crude oil by 8.9 million barrels per day between 2015 and 2040, or a total of 12.6 million barrels per day including all liquids.
Thus expecting OPEC to increase market share from the current 34 per cent to 37 per cent by 2040.
Price
OPEC believe in an average price increase of referansekurven of OPEC oils (ORB) of five dollars per year in the period 2016 to 2021.
In the current year will snittprisen end up at around $ 40 per barrel, according to the report, and with the expected price increase will thus ORB-the price to be 65 per barrel in 2021, measured in nominal terms.
This price increase means that OPEC assumes that market conditions will improve as a result of increasing demand, decreasing production from countries outside OPEC in 2016 and 2017, as well as a lower production growth in the mentioned countries in the years after this.
“Even about falling production from countries outside Opec will change direction and start to rise again in 2018, as will the significant drop in oppstrøminvesteringer keep supply growth below the global growth in demand”, said the report.
the Trust writes in the report its that the it is waiting that the nominal ORB-oil prices will reach 155 per barrel by 2040, which corresponds to about 92 dollars a barrel in 2015-prices, reports TDN Finans.
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