– Both industry and retail is slower than expected in China. The figures were announced at the weekend may weigh on both commodities and stocks, writes Henrik Sommer Fields CMC Markets.
He points out that while most Norwegians enjoy long weekend of Pentecost and National Day, is likely to high trading activity in the global markets.
Figures Smell
Saturday released the Chinese authorities to the latest figures for retail and manufacturing. Both disappointed, according Sommerfelt.
The figures showed that manufacturing grew 6.0 percent in April, compared with the same month last year, while macroeconomists had expected 6.5 percent growth.
retail sales rose 10.1 percent in April, while macroeconomists had submitted the list at 10.5 percent.
– We have received several indications that China slows slightly. In the past it has been written about lower growth in lending to the private sector. It was therefore attached great excitement to figures released at the weekend. Continued growth is far higher than what one can dream of both Europe and the United States. Nevertheless: When both industry and the service-oriented enterprises goes weaker than expected, so give it wrinkles by investors and traders, commented CMC Markets Strategist.
Commodities and stocks
He points out that availability of coal and steel industry is one of several reasons why the industry is growing more slowly than expected. For retail point China primarily on slower growth in car sales.
-News will likely affect both commodities and stocks when markets open Sunday evening Norwegian time, writes Sommerfelt, and continues;
– a Norwegian perspective is obviously impact related to oil price is most interesting. Oil prices have been very strong in recent months, but China has been a major factor of uncertainty. China is of course also important for a variety of other ingredients. Moreover, stock markets in both Europe and the United States tend to react negatively when the Chinese growth machine slows up. However, we see that the Chinese government is “on the ball”.
According to Reuters, banks have been notified that they must ensure that the business community has good access to capital.
The government has previously come with measures to ensure just that.
Progress in the United States
And while retail sales in China trays, the opposite is the case in the United States.
Summer Fields points out that growth in April was 1.3 percent, well above macroeconomic expectation of 0.8 percent. The US exchanges fell anyway in price on Friday.
– Several of the American supermarket chains have put forward weak numbers lately. It has made people worried that US consumers snap again wallet. These figures show that it is not the case. The consequences are still not only pleasant for American businesses, commenting Sommerfelt and adds;
The dollar sank markedly stronger on Friday – and now increases the probability for two rate hikes in 2016. The first could come as early as June or July and the second in December.
No comments:
Post a Comment