(Hegnar.no): GDP growth in Norway in Q1 2016 was 1.0 percent. Value added in the extraction and pipeline transport of oil and gas increased in Q1 by a clear decline in the previous quarter and contributed to the rise in total GDP was 1.0 percent.
Mainland Norway GDP growth from Q4 2015 of 0.3 percent, pushed up by the power supply by 0.2 percentage points. Without it, growth was weak 0.1 percent.
In the last year GDP growth (not seasonally adjusted percentage change in volume from the same period last year) a total of 0.7 percent and -0, 4 percent in mainland Norway.
By comparison, the GDP growth in Q4 2015 respectively -1.3 and -0.1 percent.
1-quarter 2015
Value added in industry fell through last year, but the decline has now slowed in strength. For industry total, the preliminary seasonally adjusted figures show a reduction of 0.5 per cent in Q1 2016, while the decline was 1.5 percent in Q4 last year.
It is still a weak trend in oil-related manufacturing industries, but in the shipyard industry, there are signs of improvement for shipbuilding with a shift towards other markets than offshore, explains SSB.
In building – construction industry reinforced the positive trend with a good growth of 1.1 percent in Q1. Within the land-based primary industries was the volume growth in both agriculture and forestry, while in the offshore industry was a clear upturn in traditional fishing and the corresponding decline in farming.
In service industries excluding general government continued last year’s modest trend with a decline in Q1 2016. In the public sector there was however an activity growth of 0.8 per cent in Q1, well above the average growth last year, it added.
commodity consumption unchanged – employment rose
SSB shows that after a slight growth in Q3 and somewhat stronger in Q4 last year continued household consumption to increase by one moderate pace in Q1 this year. Again it was spending on services, which increased, while household consumption was unchanged compared to Q4 last year.
The consumption of public administration grew by 0.9 percent in Q1, divided into local government and central government with respectively 0.7 and 1, 0 percent.
in Q1, employment increased in total by 0.1 percent after a similar decline in Q4. The increase was in the number of people at about 4 100. The number of hours worked also increased by 0.1 percent in Q1.
Completely as expected
GDP growth was entirely in line with Handelsbanken’s expectation while Norges Bank expected scarce 0.2 percent.
February report from the network turned to zero growth in the Norwegian economy, and according to the network’s telephone service from April there was no change in this situation, writes chief economist Kari Due-Andresen of Handelsbanken’s morning report Thursday.
Handelsbanken explained its estimate that the power supply has drawn a great deal in the first quarter, which may have contributed as much as 0.2-0.3 percentage points to GDP growth. It also means that the bank had assumed zero growth overall in the economy, but with a solid contribution from power.
However, this is not something that will affect the interest rate path Norges Bank. Fluctuations in the power supply is in fact related to weather conditions; it is not an expression of changes in underlying economic conditions, she explains.
Macro Economist Marius Gonsholt Hov Handelsbanken says, after GDP growth was announced, that they have seen a recession through second half of 2015 and that the underlying rate of growth is slightly weaker than Norges Bank expected.
He added that “recovery” in Q1 was “trivial.”
revision of 2015
in conjunction with the release of figures for Q1 2016 all quarters in 2015 revised. The new figures show a quarterly growth in GDP for mainland Norway respectively 0.2, 0.2, 0.0 and -0.1 percent, meaning a downward revision in Q4 compared to the previous release.
in 2015, GDP growth totaling 1.6 and 1 percent in mainland Norway. In 2014 it was respectively 2.2 and 2.3 percent.
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