IEA sees signs that oil prices have bottomed out – OBI Online

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is out with a new monthly report.

Global demand growth is expected – as in the January report to 1.2 million barrels per day on an annual basis in 2016. 1.2 million barrels per day was the growth in demand (from the same period last year) in Q4, which was down dramatically from 2.3 million barrels per day in the quarter before.

Estimated average demand per day in 2016 is 95 , 75 million barrels per day, representing an upward revision of 170,000 barrels per day.

Global oil fell 180,000 barrels to 96.5 million barrels per day in February, and production fell both in and outside OPEC.

96.5 million barrels are still 1.8 million barrels higher than the same time last year, thanks to OPEC.

Read more here.

Iran-rise Iraq-fall

OPEC production fell 90,000 barrels – according to IEA still robust – 32.61 million barrels per day in February. Production Fall in Iraq, Nigeria and the UAE were only partially offset by the increase in production in Iran. Saudi Arabia kept its output unchanged.

For the entire 2016 is expected oil production outside OPEC (non-OPEC) to fall by 750,000 barrels to 57.0 million barrels per day.

The oil price collection in recent weeks should not be taken as a “definitely signs” that the worst is over, writes IEA according to TDN Finans.

– Yet there are signs that prices may have bottomed out, the report states where supply disruptions in Iraq, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates cited as supportive factors and signs of declining “non-OPEC” production.

– No fast freeze effect

In addition, of course, if necessary. measures to control supply.

Moscow on March 20 has previously been announced as the time and place for talks on production freeze between Russia and several OPEC countries, led by Saudi Arabia.

But Thursday enlightened “sources with knowledge of the matter” told Reuters that the meeting probably will take place anyway.

the background will be uncertainty about OPEC member country Iran will join in such an agreement to freeze production.

OPEC delegates stated according to news agency that Iran is the biggest obstacle for a broad agreement. Teheran feel they should be kept out of such an agreement, then Iran will recapture market share that was lost due to Western sanctions. Kuwait said on Tuesday that the country will join a broad agreement – if all major manufacturers joined, including Iran.

– They do not agree about the meeting. Why should ministers meet again now? Iran says it will not do anything. Things will change only if Iran joins said one OPEC source from a large producer countries said.

About the possible freeze agreement writes IEA according to TDN Finans that the agency can not know when the meeting will take place, and that it is still unlikely that a deal will affect the market balance significantly in 1st half 2016.