(Financial Newspaper): Yesterday was Danske Bank Markets with new forecasts for the Norwegian economy. LFS unemployment is 4.8 percent not scare chief economist Frank Jullum.
Unemployment levels out
– Unemployment is rising, but it flattens out. Last spring rose registered unemployment with 1,500 to 1,700 a month. Now the increase of 400-500. At the same time an increase in the number of vacancies, says Jullum Finansavisen.
Several vacancies simultaneously with that unemployment actually increases can involve mismatch – that those who lose their jobs in the oil industry are not eligible for other jobs. Not so, think Jullum.
When peak in 2016
– I do not like to use the term “voluntary” unemployment, but the threshold for breaking up is high, says Jullum. According Finansavisen think Jullum unemployment peaks in the summer of 2016.
– It reduces the risk of a more prolonged downturn driven by housing market and consumption, says chief economist.
So far, he sees few signs of spillover effects of the downturn in the oil industry. Service provision to businesses has indeed flat. Oil investment has fallen from a peak of 57 billion dollars in the third quarter of 2013 to 40 billion by last count. Jullum predict a bottom 34 billion.
headwinds are less
– It’s 75 percent of the fall made. Activity in the oil industry fell in line with the investments. Headwinds are less forward to Jullum Finansavisen.
It also helps that breakeven price for oil projects have fallen sharply, says Danske Bank economist. He gives fiscal policy, monetary policy, weak crown and automatic stabilizers credit for the growth in the rest of the economy are strong.
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