– We expect some pleasant surprises, writes CMC Markets in a recent update Sunday.
US stocks look back on the weakest returns week in two months.
Eventful Week
for the week, there are two things that count: Earnings season starts in the US – and from China is very important numbers.
– for the first time in a long time, it is not the Fed that dominate the news. Now speculating investors and traders in the United States on what we can expect of the earnings season. The signals from the previous quarter is still fresh in memory. When presented company managements us for quite miserable prospects in 2016, despite the fact that the fourth quarter last year was fried, says Henrik Sommer Fields CMC Markets.
Dollar Pressure eases
He points out that a of the reasons why many companies have been skeptical to 2016 is the extremely strong dollar and falling energy prices. Moreover, it has been clear prospects for higher interest rates in the US economy.
– What we have seen so far this year is that the economy in general has continued in the right direction. This is a good sign. Dollar pressures have also eased as the dollar has weakened partly against the euro. Another good sign is that we almost do not get any profit warnings from companies so far this year, says Sommerfelt and continues;
– We believe that investors has set a bit too low in front of earnings season. We expect some pleasant surprises.
First is aluminum giant Alcoa flippers started earnings season on Monday evening Norwegian time. Large banks JP Morgan (Wednesday), Bank of America (Thursday) and Citigroup (Friday) then follow.
– The expectations of the American banks are very low. Lately there has been much talk of bankruptcies in the oil industry and what this will mean for the banks. Oil prices seem to have stabilized at relatively low levels and fear of loss in oil regions of the United States is still present. But remember that it is relatively well in the rest of the country, stressing the CMC analyst.
China news
The second key word in the coming week is equally important: China.
– the night of Monday comes the latest figures for the consumer price index on Wednesday publicly China’s trade balance before the week ends with the GDP figures for the first quarter, industrial production and retail released Thursday night, says Sommerfeldt.
He believes this is a big week for news from China.
– the fear that the Chinese economy will collapse has driven the stock down earlier this year. Now it does not seem that the development of China is quite as bad as feared, but the market remains sensitive to weak numbers that spread new uncertainty. Especially important is GDP report coming at the end of the week. It therefore took an action packed week for investors and traders.
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