- It does not look particularly bright – Dagens Næringsliv

– It does not look particularly bright for the time, there is limited upside, says equity strategist Peter Hermanrud in Swedbank to Dagens Næringsliv.

Continued low oil prices and unstable markets are contributing to the main index on the Oslo stock Exchange is less so far this year.

– Little to go

Swedbank strategist has been less positive for the stock market than he was earlier this year.

the market and share prices have come up, while corporate earnings have come down. Then begins the ratio to be relatively fresh explains.

– There is relatively little to go on, on the upside. The only hope is a further upturn in oil, energy, aluminum, fertilizer and the kind of thing this year, says Hermanrud.

The argument to be exposed in stocks if you want return was better when prices were lower, but the dilemma remains that the alternatives are worse, says stock strategist.

– it looks like the worst earnings year since 2010 for companies on the Oslo stock Exchange, and it applies not only to oil-related stocks , it is round tack, says Hermanrud .

Weaker market view

He is still positive for the salmon sector, but warns that prices have risen sharply even there.

– In the short term it looks awesome with high salmon prices that companies make buckets of money. But when it comes to pricing of shares must have more than one year perspective. Sometime can salmon in Chile come back again or other things affect the market balance. Probably it is straightforward enough, but it’s built some downside there too, says Hermanrud.

He describes Swedbank’s market as “neutral” and “marginally plus”.

– Plus-argument is that you should mostly have shares, and there is no option that gives returns. There is just no violent upside in stocks either, says strategist.

Pending

Traditionally, the period from late November through May has been good in the stock market, but a whole lot of companies are going to struggle with future earnings, also warns equity strategist Erik Fosland Nordea.

– We think it will be stock pickers’ year, says Fosland to DN.

So far, the recommended investment portfolio of Nordea colleagues Fosland and Erik Roland performed in line with benchmark they compare themselves with.

the market is also still pending, although it is a little better than when market bottomed in February, believes Fosland.

Investment Strategist Erik Fosland Nordea (middle). Behind Martin Jansson (standing) and Espen Rasmussen Werenskjold. Photo: Per Ståle Bugjerde

– It has been difficult to find particularly good stocks, unless one has been fortunate focus targeting as salmon. Then you hit the most part, although some major players have sold off, he says .

– Not worth the risk

On the other hand investors must be exposed in stocks, if you want return.

While bank deposits in practice gives negative returns, investments in debt bonds has gone from high to low returns. It’s not worth the risk, says stock strategist.

– You do not get very well paid to take the risk. Of course there are many who go in bombed bonds and hope to make quick money, but it can be overlooked, he said.

Production Freeze

Strategen sign that investors are hesitant especially to oil and oil service sector.

Fosland not fear for oil companies that make money on current oil prices, but notes that oil and sectors with short visibility would struggle.

Great expectations are relating to the next oil summit of the organization of the petroleum Exporting countries (Opec) on 17 April. The question is to what extent production freeze will be implemented and respected.

– Oil prices are expected to come up regardless if Iran joins or not, says Fosland.

Hermanrud expect little to come out of Opec meeting and pointed out that one has come so far in balancing the market without taking production cuts that only runs on ahead.

– It is also difficult for Arab countries and Iran to cooperate, he said.

– Extremely strong

Fosland points out that it is the fundamentals, central banks, oil prices and earnings, meaning something and driver market.

Still, it does not seem that demand for Norwegian salmon is going to subside with the first, he said.

– salmon has gone tremendously fast and enormously but there is greater upside potential if things continue and it seems like it does. Low supply, high demand, prices go, algae outbreak in Chile and small fish there. It looks extremely bright, says Fosland.

Nordea took DNB from its recommended investment portfolio this week. Preferred shares are cheap commodity chain Europris, salmon farmer Marine Harvest, fertilizer producer Yara, Aker and Røkke companies Havfisk and Ocean Yield, Protector Forsikring and payroll software company Zalaris.

The main index on the Oslo Stock Exchange is down 4.8 percent to 581, 1 point so far this year. The last 12 months is definitive a decline of 5.7 percent, while one has been in the market over the past two years, the main index has risen 3.7 percent.

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