(Finansavisen): The monetary policy meeting on the same day as Brexit referendum it can become poor durability at Norges Bank’s new forecasts. There are no great expectations of any interest rate cuts now, Finance writes newspaper.
– They add enough reason that Britain remains EU membership. They will control and signaling rate as if no withdrawal, think senior economist Kyrre Aamdal DNB Markets.
– But if there is withdrawal, we risk turbulent markets and change in the outlook for the economy, and Norway Bank may come with a warning about how they will handle this. They will have an emergency, including in terms of liquidity, he says to the newspaper.
A weaker crown
Aamdal shows according Finansavisen that much of the international interest rate decline reflects just Brexit-uncertainty.
– So whether Norges Bank does not think it will be opting out, they may assume that international interest shall be slightly up again, he said.
however, if Brexit being a reality, says a senior economist that it can increase the probability that interest rates here at home cut.
– it pulls in that direction, although we have to reckon with a weaker krone by Brexit, he said.
– A weaker krone will raise inflation. But turmoil will curb the international clean image and it will be strange if Norges Bank does not stimulate more about other countries’ central banks are forced to do so, says Aamdal said.
Low long
Thursday Norges Bank publishes also a new Monetary Policy report, and Aamdal think that in it lies at a lower interest rate path. Not by making it more likely with zero interest or negative interest, but primarily in that interest rates remain low for longer.
Seniørøkonomen believe that the new interest rate path only in 2019 will differ from the current one. DNB Markets believe according Finansavisen thus still we get the latest interest rate cut, to 0.25 percent, in the fall.
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